Former Border Patrol Chief Says Southern Border Is at Its Quietest

Ortiz’s Assessment of Current Border Activity

Raul Ortiz, who led the U.S. Border Patrol from 2019 to 2022, told reporters that the flow of people and vehicles across the southern border has fallen to a level he has never witnessed in his three‑decade career. He described the situation as "quiet" and noted that apprehensions have dropped sharply in the past twelve months.

What Changed After the Height of the Crisis?

During the peak of the border surge in 2021, officials reported record numbers of illegal crossings and a surge in asylum applications. Ortiz said that at that time, some members of the current administration appeared to welcome the chaos, using it to push for stricter immigration policies.

Policy Shifts and Their Impact

Since early 2023, the Department of Homeland Security has adjusted its enforcement strategy. The agency has increased the use of technology, expanded humanitarian processing centers, and redirected resources toward high‑risk corridors. These moves, according to Ortiz, have contributed to the decline in illegal crossings.

Statistical Evidence of Decline

Official data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection show a 45 percent drop in apprehensions between fiscal year 2022 and fiscal year 2024. The number of encounters in the Rio Grande Valley, historically the busiest sector, fell from over 400,000 in 2022 to under 220,000 in 2024.

Key Metrics

• Apprehensions: 450,000 in FY 2022 to 250,000 in FY 2024
• Family units encountered: 75,000 in FY 2022 to 38,000 in FY 2024
• Smuggling seizures: down 30 percent over the same period

Reasons Behind the Quiet Period

Experts point to several factors that may explain the slowdown.

Economic Conditions in Origin Countries

Slower economic growth in Central America, combined with increased job opportunities in neighboring countries, has reduced the incentive for risky migration journeys. A recent report from the Brookings Institution highlights that higher wages in Guatemala and Honduras correlate with fewer irregular border attempts.

Enhanced Border Technology

The deployment of advanced sensors, drones, and AI‑driven analytics has improved detection rates and allowed agents to intervene before large groups can cross. Ortiz praised the integration of these tools as a "game changer" for field operations.

Legal Pathways and Regional Cooperation

New agreements with Mexico and Central American governments have streamlined legal migration channels, providing alternatives to dangerous crossings. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime notes that regional cooperation has helped dismantle major smuggling networks.

Community Reactions Along the Border

Residents of border towns such as El Paso, Texas, and Nogales, Arizona, have reported a noticeable decline in traffic and related disruptions. Local law enforcement agencies say that fewer crossings have reduced strain on emergency services and schools.

Business Perspectives

Some small businesses that rely on cross‑border trade have expressed concern that reduced movement could affect revenue. However, many merchants appreciate the lower incidence of crime and property damage.

Critics Question the Narrative

While Ortiz emphasizes the quietness of the border, advocacy groups argue that the data does not capture the full picture. They warn that reduced apprehensions may reflect changes in reporting methods rather than an actual decline in migration pressure.

Human Rights Concerns

Organizations such as the American Immigration Council have called for continued monitoring of asylum seekers to ensure that reduced numbers are not the result of deterrence tactics that violate international law.

What the Future May Hold

Looking ahead, Ortiz believes that sustained investment in technology and cooperative agreements will keep the border at a manageable level. He cautioned, however, that external shocks—such as natural disasters or sudden economic downturns—could quickly reverse the trend.

Potential Policy Adjustments

Congressional proposals under consideration include additional funding for border infrastructure, expanded legal pathways for work visas, and reforms to the asylum adjudication process. The outcome of these proposals will shape the border environment for years to come.

Key Takeaways

• Former Border Patrol chief Raul Ortiz describes the current southern border as the quietest in his career.
• Apprehension numbers have fallen by nearly half since 2022.
• Improved technology, regional cooperation, and shifting economic conditions are cited as primary drivers.
• Critics urge caution, emphasizing the need for transparent data and protection of migrant rights.
• Future policy decisions will determine whether the quiet trend endures.

Overall, the assessment from a seasoned law enforcement leader offers a hopeful sign for a region long marked by volatility, yet the conversation remains open as policymakers balance security, humanitarian, and economic considerations.